Spatial and temporal clustering of dengue virus transmission in Thai villages.

BackgroundTransmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the leading cause of arboviral disease worldwide, is known to vary through time and space, likely owing to a combination of factors related to the human host, virus, mosquito vector, and environment. An improved understanding of variation in transmission patterns is fundamental to conducting surveillance and implementing disease prevention strategies. To test the hypothesis that DENV transmission is spatially and temporally focal, we compared geographic and temporal characteristics within Thai villages where DENV are and are not being actively transmitted.Methods and findingsCluster investigations were conducted within 100 m of homes where febrile index children with (positive clusters) and without (negative clusters) acute dengue lived during two seasons of peak DENV transmission. Data on human infection and mosquito infection/density were examined to precisely (1) define the spatial and temporal dimensions of DENV transmission, (2) correlate these factors with variation in DENV transmission, and (3) determine the burden of inapparent and symptomatic infections. Among 556 village children enrolled as neighbors of 12 dengue-positive and 22 dengue-negative index cases, all 27 DENV infections (4.9% of enrollees) occurred in positive clusters (p < 0.01; attributable risk [AR] = 10.4 per 100; 95% confidence interval 1-19.8 per 100]. In positive clusters, 12.4% of enrollees became infected in a 15-d period and DENV infections were aggregated centrally near homes of index cases. As only 1 of 217 pairs of serologic specimens tested in positive clusters revealed a recent DENV infection that occurred prior to cluster initiation, we attribute the observed DENV transmission subsequent to cluster investigation to recent DENV transmission activity. Of the 1,022 female adult Ae. aegypti collected, all eight (0.8%) dengue-infected mosquitoes came from houses in positive clusters; none from control clusters or schools. Distinguishing features between positive and negative clusters were greater availability of piped water in negative clusters (p < 0.01) and greater number of Ae. aegypti pupae per person in positive clusters (p = 0.04). During primarily DENV-4 transmission seasons, the ratio of inapparent to symptomatic infections was nearly 1:1 among child enrollees. Study limitations included inability to sample all children and mosquitoes within each cluster and our reliance on serologic rather than virologic evidence of interval infections in enrollees given restrictions on the frequency of blood collections in children.ConclusionsOur data reveal the remarkably focal nature of DENV transmission within a hyperendemic rural area of Thailand. These data suggest that active school-based dengue case detection prompting local spraying could contain recent virus introductions and reduce the longitudinal risk of virus spread within rural areas. Our results should prompt future cluster studies to explore how host immune and behavioral aspects may impact DENV transmission and prevention strategies. Cluster methodology could serve as a useful research tool for investigation of other temporally and spatially clustered infectious diseases

Fine Scale Spatiotemporal Clustering of Dengue Virus Transmission in Children and Aedes aegypti in Rural Thai Villages

Background: Based on spatiotemporal clustering of human dengue virus (DENV) infections, transmission is thought to occur at fine spatiotemporal scales by horizontal transfer of virus between humans and mosquito vectors. To define the dimensions of local transmission and quantify the factors that support it, we examined relationships between infected humans and Aedes aegypti in Thai villages. Methodology/Principal Findings: Geographic cluster investigations of 100-meter radius were conducted around DENV-positive and DENV-negative febrile ‘‘index’’ cases (positive and negative clusters, respectively) from a longitudinal cohort study in rural Thailand. Child contacts and Ae. aegypti from cluster houses were assessed for DENV infection. Spatiotemporal, demographic, and entomological parameters were evaluated. In positive clusters, the DENV infection rate among child contacts was 35.3% in index houses, 29.9% in houses within 20 meters, and decreased with distance from the index house to 6.2% in houses 80–100 meters away (pAe. aegypti were DENV-infectious (i.e., DENV-positive in head/thorax) in positive clusters (23/1755; 1.3%) than negative clusters (1/1548; 0.1%). In positive clusters, 8.2% of mosquitoes were DENV-infectious in index houses, 4.2% in other houses with DENV-infected children, and 0.4% in houses without infected children (pAe. aegypti pupae and adult females were more numerous only in houses containing infectious mosquitoes. Conclusions/Significance: Human and mosquito infections are positively associated at the level of individual houses and neighboring residences. Certain houses with high transmission risk contribute disproportionately to DENV spread to neighboring houses. Small groups of houses with elevated transmission risk are consistent with over-dispersion of transmission (i.e., at a given point in time, people/mosquitoes from a small portion of houses are responsible for the majority of transmission)

Spatial and temporal clustering of dengue virus transmission in Thai villages.

BackgroundTransmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the leading cause of arboviral disease worldwide, is known to vary through time and space, likely owing to a combination of factors related to the human host, virus, mosquito vector, and environment. An improved understanding of variation in transmission patterns is fundamental to conducting surveillance and implementing disease prevention strategies. To test the hypothesis that DENV transmission is spatially and temporally focal, we compared geographic and temporal characteristics within Thai villages where DENV are and are not being actively transmitted.Methods and findingsCluster investigations were conducted within 100 m of homes where febrile index children with (positive clusters) and without (negative clusters) acute dengue lived during two seasons of peak DENV transmission. Data on human infection and mosquito infection/density were examined to precisely (1) define the spatial and temporal dimensions of DENV transmission, (2) correlate these factors with variation in DENV transmission, and (3) determine the burden of inapparent and symptomatic infections. Among 556 village children enrolled as neighbors of 12 dengue-positive and 22 dengue-negative index cases, all 27 DENV infections (4.9% of enrollees) occurred in positive clusters (p < 0.01; attributable risk [AR] = 10.4 per 100; 95% confidence interval 1-19.8 per 100]. In positive clusters, 12.4% of enrollees became infected in a 15-d period and DENV infections were aggregated centrally near homes of index cases. As only 1 of 217 pairs of serologic specimens tested in positive clusters revealed a recent DENV infection that occurred prior to cluster initiation, we attribute the observed DENV transmission subsequent to cluster investigation to recent DENV transmission activity. Of the 1,022 female adult Ae. aegypti collected, all eight (0.8%) dengue-infected mosquitoes came from houses in positive clusters; none from control clusters or schools. Distinguishing features between positive and negative clusters were greater availability of piped water in negative clusters (p < 0.01) and greater number of Ae. aegypti pupae per person in positive clusters (p = 0.04). During primarily DENV-4 transmission seasons, the ratio of inapparent to symptomatic infections was nearly 1:1 among child enrollees. Study limitations included inability to sample all children and mosquitoes within each cluster and our reliance on serologic rather than virologic evidence of interval infections in enrollees given restrictions on the frequency of blood collections in children.ConclusionsOur data reveal the remarkably focal nature of DENV transmission within a hyperendemic rural area of Thailand. These data suggest that active school-based dengue case detection prompting local spraying could contain recent virus introductions and reduce the longitudinal risk of virus spread within rural areas. Our results should prompt future cluster studies to explore how host immune and behavioral aspects may impact DENV transmission and prevention strategies. Cluster methodology could serve as a useful research tool for investigation of other temporally and spatially clustered infectious diseases

Reply to Akbar et al

Background. The understanding of dengue virus (DENV) transmission dynamics and the clinical spectrum of infection are critical to informing surveillance and control measures. Geographic cluster studies can elucidate these features in greater detail than cohort studies alone. Methods. A 4-year longitudinal cohort and geographic cluster study was undertaken in rural Thailand. Cohort children underwent pre-/postseason serology and active school absence-based surveillance to detect inapparent and symptomatic dengue. Cluster investigations were triggered by cohort dengue and non-dengue febrile illnesses (positive and negative clusters, respectively). Results. The annual cohort incidence of symptomatic dengue ranged from 1.3% to 4.4%. DENV-4 predominated in the first 2 years, DENV-1 in the second 2 years. The inapparent-to-symptomatic infection ratio ranged from 1.1:1 to 2.9:1. Positive clusters had a 16.0% infection rate, negative clusters 1.1%. Of 119 infections in positive clusters, 59.7% were febrile, 20.2 were afebrile with other symptoms, and 20.2% were asymptomatic. Of 16 febrile children detected during cluster investigations who continued to attend school, 9 had detectable viremia. Conclusions. Dengue transmission risk was high near viremic children in both high-and low-incidence years. Inapparent infections in the cohort overestimated the rate of asymptomatic infections. Ambulatory children with mild febrile viremic infections could represent an important component of dengue transmission. © 2012 behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

Description of houses with DENV-infectious female <i>Ae.</i> aegypti.

<p>Footnote: Includes only houses with index cases or enrolled child contacts. ND = not detected by PCR but positive by EIA.</p

Mean distance of houses with DENV-infectious mosquitoes to other houses in the same cluster.

<p>Mean distance of houses with DENV-infectious mosquitoes to other houses in the same cluster.</p

Selected entomological indices and DENV infection rates in houses with and without infectious mosquitoes.

<p>Footnote: Only houses with index cases or enrolled child contacts were included. Person refers to adults and children. P-values are for one-way ANOVA comparisons for means and Fisher's exact test for proportion of infected contacts.</p

Focal aggregation of DENV-infected child contacts in positive clusters categorized by estimated time of infection.

<p>RD = recent dengue (N = 15); ES = enrollment seroconversion (N = 41); PES = post-enrollment seroconversion (N = 63); day 15 PCR-positive (N = 10).</p

Focal aggregation of DENV-infected child contacts in positive clusters.

<p>Relationship between DENV infection rate and distance from index case house was significant (Chi square, p<0.001). Distance from index case house 0 m: N = 18/51; >0–20 m: N = 20/67; >20–40 m: N = 28/126; >40–60 m: 23/174; >60–80 m: 28/194; >80–100 m: 12/193 (N = Infected Contacts/Enrolled Contacts).</p